This product involves the implementation of an early warning system for storm surges through the application of advanced technologies, including coastal modelling and machine learning. The adopted approach is based on the simulation of historical storms using the XBeach model, an open-source numerical tool for coastal dynamics simulation. Datasets on the most extreme events affecting the study areas were provided by the forecasting centre of the Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering (DICCA).

The pilot sites are the coastal areas of Voltri and Camogli, located west and east of the city of Genoa, respectively. Forty events were simulated for both sites: 20 from the southwest (SW) and 20 from the southeast (SE), which are the two main directions from which the most extreme storms in the Ligurian Sea originate. Wave parameters were sampled from a database containing data from 1979 to 2022.

This approach allowed us to obtain detailed estimates of wave run-up, which represents the key “hazard variable” in the coastal exposure assessment process. By coupling historical run-up levels (the water levels reached on the coast) with information on coastal morphology and urbanisation, it is possible to obtain a reliable estimation of coastal exposure, which is then linked to wave parameters to support early warning.